基于股权自由现金流估值--以北京银行为例(论文10900字)
摘要
中国股票市场大幅震荡下跌的态势,至今已持续了四年,自2007-2008年的过山车行情之后,2009、2010直至目前,一直维持着低迷的状态。股指的迅速蒸发,带来企业价值的大幅缩水,银行股也不外如此。然而于此相悖的是,近2-3年,仅辽沈地区就有大批新进的股份制商业银行和城市商业银行陆续开业,原有商业银行也以沈阳为中心,迅速向周边——辽阳、铁岭、本溪、葫芦岛等地扩展,呈现的是一个稳步增长、甚至迅速扩张的发展态势。两种现象之间存在着明显的矛盾,给投资者和企业管理者都带来很大的困惑。
本文选取上北京银行2007-2010部分数据作为分析对象,釆用股权现金流贴现的方法,对企业价值进行回归,评估企业内在价值,将资本股票市场表象与企业内在价值进行比对分析,旨在为投资者提供一个理性参考值,也未银行管理者客观的认识企业提供一些依据。
在选取评估方法时考虑到,银行是一类特殊的企业,商业银行主要资金来源是种类繁多、结构复杂的存款,资本成本的估算比较困难,商业银行负债的作用与一般企业不同,银行从资本市场中获得的负债资金成本低于市场要求的资本成本。因此,使用股权现金流贴现模型评估银行价值可以避开对负债资本成本的讨论,评估商业银行的价值也更容易。
关键词:绩效评价,价值评估,股权现金流贴现
Abstract
China's stock market swings downward trend, has been going on for four years, since 2007 - after the 2008 stock market roller coaster, 2009, 2010 up to now, has maintained a depressed state. Rapid evaporation of stock, bringing the enterprise value has shrunk dramatically, banks do not go beyond this. However, this is contrary to the past 2--3 years, only Liaoning Shenyang region had a large number of new entrants in the joint-stock commercial banks and city commercial banks have opened, the original commercial banks in order to Shenyang as the center, quickly to the periphery - Liaoyang, Tieling, Benxi, Huludao and other places to expand, showing a steady growth, even rapid expansion of development. There is a clear contradiction between the two phenomena, to investors and business managers have a great deal of confusion.
Bank of Beijing on paper selected 2007-2010 as part of the data analysis objects, preclude the use of the equity discounted cash flow method, the enterprise value of regression to assess the intrinsic value of the enterprise, the capital stock market representation and the intrinsic value of the enterprise for comparison analysis, aimed at provide a rational reference value for investors, bank managers are not objective understanding of the enterprise to provide some basis.
When selecting assessment methods take into account that the bank is a special kind of enterprise, commercial banks are the main source of funds a wide range of complex structure of deposits, is more difficult to estimate the cost of capital, the role of commercial bank debt and general corporate different banks from the capital the cost of debt capital market gained less than the cost of capital market requirements. Therefore, using the discounted cash flow model to assess the equity value of the bank can avoid the discussion of the cost of debt capital, to assess the value of commercial banks is also easier.
Keywords: performance evaluation, valuation, equity discounted cash flow
目录
摘要 1
Abstract 2
1 绪论 4
1.1选题背景与意义 4
1.2研究思路 5
2相关理论与研究方法 6
2. 1理论综述 6
2.1.1国外理论综述 6
2. 1. 2国内理论综述 7
2. 2企业价值评估方法 8
2. 2.1股利折现法 8
2.2.2资本资产定价法 8
2. 2. 3相对价值法 9
2. 2. 4现金流量贴现法 9
2. 2.5经济增加值估值法(EVA) 10
3．北京银行财务分析与绩效评价 11
3.1 北京银行简介 11
3. 2商业银行绩效评价方法 12
4.北京银行价值评估模型与实证分析 13
4.1价值评估模型的选择 13
4. 1.1价值评估模型的比较 13
4.1.2股权现金流貼现模型的适用性分析 13
4. 1.3股权现金流貼现模型 13
4. 2北京银行价值评估相关数值计算 14
4.2.1贴现率的确定 14
4.2. 2测算股权现金流 15
5北京银行估值分析与投资建议 17
5.1评估北京银行的价值 17
5.1.1永续增长期北京银行价值计算 17
5. 2 北京银行投资建议 17
6. 结论 19
参考文献 21
致谢 23 |
