中韩农产品贸易潜力研究-基于中韩FTA视角(硕士)(论文25000字)
Research on the trade potential of agricultural products between China and Korea- Based on the perspective of FTA
摘 要
随着经济全球化进程的加快和区域经济一体化的实现，中韩两国已经成为世界经济贸易中的重要参与者和实践者，能够从根本上推进全球区域背景下的经济交流与合作。中韩自由贸易区的建立始于2004年，并积极参与到中韩自由贸易区建设的官产学联合研究中。中韩双边贸易理念存在相应的冲突，中韩FTA谈判于2012年5月正式启动，并于2014年11月取得实质性进展，于2015年6月1日正式签署贸易协定。虽然中韩自由贸易协定谈判取得重要的突破，成为我国多年来对外商谈自由贸易区的重大举措，但是仍然存在很多双边贸易官方问题亟待解决。笔者着重从FTA视角对中韩双方农产品贸易中涉及到的相关问题及潜力进行研究。
中国和韩国各有其不同的产业结构优势，对待农产品市场开放问题也存在立场上的分歧。与中国相比，韩国农产品在世界市场中居于劣势地位。农业是韩国最敏感的产业之一，韩国对本国农产品开放持相当谨慎的态度，中国倾向于推进农产品贸易自由化。这使得中韩FTA农产品谈判涉及到的相关要素更加多，并且趋于复杂化。中韩双方需要对双边农产品贸易的具体情况进行分析，以缓解双方立场上的对立。中韩两国要立足于统计分析的基础上对其农产品贸易现状和前景进行考量，从而实现两国经济合作过程中的双赢。
文章第一章是绪论，主要阐述了文章的研究意义、研究背景、研究方法、研究思路以及不足之处，并从理论和实证两方面对国内外学者关于贸易潜力的研究进行梳理总结，作出简要评述。
第二章对自由贸易区相关理论进行介绍，主要包括关税同盟理论、自由贸易区理论和贸易引力模型。关税同盟理论又分静态效应和动态效应。
第三章着重分析中韩农产品贸易现状。首先，以中国为视角，对韩国农业生产结构进行阐述并对其特征进行归纳；其次，分析中韩两国农产品在世界农产品贸易中的进出口规模、地区结构和产品结构；第三，对中韩农产品显性比较优势、贸易竞争性和互补性指数等测算，对中韩双边农产品贸易规模和贸易结构进行重点分析。
第四章运用联合国数据库最新20年数据构建贸易引力模型，并对中韩贸易进出口总额进行长期预测。本章分为四部分，分别为贸易引力模型的简要介绍、本文基本模型设定、采用的回归数据以及以及计算结果分析。
第五章在上述研究的基础上，对数据结果进行分析，并得出相关结论。发现新形势下中韩两国农产品贸易的发展潜力及可能出现的贸易障碍和挑战。
第六章是研究结论和政策建议。对论文的研究内容进行归纳总结，得出相关结论。并在中韩FTA视阈下对促进两国农产品贸易和中国农业发展提出意见和建议。
关键词：中韩农产品贸易 潜力研究 贸易规则 FTA视角
Abstract
With the accelerated process of economic globalization and the regional economic integration,China and South Korea has become the important participants and practitioners in the world economy and trade,can fundamentally promote under the background of global regional economic exchanges and cooperation. The establishment of free trade area between China and South Korea began in 2004, and actively participated in the joint study of the official production of the construction of the free trade area between China and Korea. China and South Korea bilateral trade concept there is a corresponding conflict, China and South Korea FTA negotiations officially started in May 2012, and made substantial progress in November 2014, signed a trade agreement in June 1, 2015. Although China and South Korea free trade agreement negotiations made an important breakthrough, becoming China's many years of foreign talk about the free trade zone of major initiatives, but there are still many official bilateral trade issues to be resolved. The author focuses on the related issues and potential in the agricultural products trade between China and South Korea from the perspective of FTA.
China and South Korea each have their own advantages in different industrial structure, and there are differences in the position of the opening of the agricultural products market. Compared with China, hanguonong products in the inferior position in the world market. Agriculture is one of the most sensitive industries in South Korea, the South Korean team has a very cautious attitude towards the opening of agricultural production, China tends to promote the liberalization of agricultural trade. This makes China and South Korea FTA agricultural negotiations related elements involved more and more complex. China and South Korea need to analyze the specific situation of bilateral agricultural trade, in order to ease the opposition between the two sides. China and South Korea should be based on the statistical analysis of the status and prospects of its agricultural trade to consider, so as to achieve economic cooperation between the two countries in the process of win-win.
The first chapter is the introduction, mainly elaborated the research significance, research background, research methods, research ideas and deficiencies, and from two aspects of theory and empirical non domestic and foreign scholars' research on the trade potential is summed up, make a brief comment.
The second chapter introduces the theory of free trade area, including the theory of Customs Union and the theory of intra industry trade. The theory of customs union is divided into static effect and dynamic effect.
The third chapter focuses on the analysis of the current situation of agricultural products trade between China and korea. First, with China as the angle of view, to analyze the agricultural production structure in South Korea and the characteristics were summarized in this paper; secondly, the analysis of agricultural products between China and South Korea in the world trade in agricultural products import and export scale, regional structure and product structure; third, calculation of the agricultural products between China and South Korea dominant comparative advantage, trade competition and complementarity index, to China and South Korea bilateral agricultural products trade scale and trade structure are analyzed in detail.
In the fourth chapter, using the latest 20 year data of the United Nations database to construct the trade gravity model, and the total amount of imports and exports of China and South Korea trade for a long time forecast. This chapter is divided into four parts, which are the brief introduction of trade gravity model, the basic model of this paper, the use of regression data and calculation results analysis.
On the basis of the above research, the fifth chapter analyzes the data and draws some conclusions. The development potential of the trade of agricultural products between China and Korea under the new situation and the possible trade barriers and challenges.
The sixth chapter is the research conclusions and policy recommendations. The research contents of the paper are summarized, and the relevant conclusions are drawn. And in the perspective of China and South Korea FTA to promote the development of agricultural products and promote the development of agricultural products in China and put forward opinions and suggestions.
Key words: China and South Korea trade； potential of agricultural products ；trade rules ；FTA Perspective
目 录
第一章 绪论 1
1.1 选题背景和意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 1
1.2 文献综述 1
1.2.1 国外文献综述 1
1.2.2 国内文献综述 2
1.3 研究的思路、方法及不足 2
1.3.1 研究思路 2
1.3.2 研究方法 2
1.3.3 研究的不足之处 2
第二章 理论基础 4
2.1 关税同盟理论 4
2.2 自由贸易区理论 4
2.3 贸易引力模型 5
第三章 中韩农产品贸易的现状分析 7
3.1 中韩农产品贸易的发展历程 7
3.2 中韩农产品双边贸易发展现状 7
3.2.1 中韩农产品贸易额稳步增长，以中国农产品对韩输出为主 7
3.2.2 中韩农产品出口目的地相似 8
3.2.3 中韩农产品贸易不平衡 8
3.3 中韩农产品贸易的互补性和竞争性分析 9
3.3.1 中韩两国农产品贸易规模 9
3.3.2 中韩两国农产品贸易结构 9
3.3.3 中韩农产品竞争性互补性制约因素 10
3.3.4 中韩农产品竞争性互补性结论 10
3.4 中韩农产品贸易发展中存在的问题 11
3.4.1 韩国农产品检疫制度 11
3.4.2 韩国农民的抵制 11
3.4.3 韩国农业保障体系不健全 11
3.4.4 中国农产品对韩国农业的冲击 11
3.4.5 中国农产品质量问题 12
第四章 中韩农产品贸易潜力预测分析 13
4.1 贸易引力模型概述 13
4.2 贸易引力模型的构建 13
4.2.1 设定模型 13
4.2.2 提出假设 14
4.3 贸易引力模型结果分析 14
4.3.1 总类农产品的检验结果 15
4.3.2 分类农产品回归结果 15
4.3.3 中韩农产品贸易潜力测算 16
4.4 本章小结 16
第五章 新形势下中韩农产品贸易发展的前景分析及可能出现的障碍 18
5.1 中韩农产品贸易发展前景分析 18
5.1.1 经济疲软形势下的中韩农产品贸易 18
5.1.2 基于FTA的中韩农产品贸易 18
5.1.3 推动中韩两国贸易合作 18
5.1.4 建立完善的双边协调机制 19
5.2 未来中韩农产品贸易发展存在的障碍 19
5.2.1 农产品安全问题 19
5.2.2 韩国政府市场保护政策 19
第六章 中韩FTA下促进两国农产品贸易以及促进中国农业发展提出相关建议 20
6.1 中韩FTA下促进两国农产品贸易相关建议 20
6.1.1 政府层面 20
6.1.2 产业层面 20
6.2 中韩FTA下促进中国农业发展相关建议 20
6.3 本章小结 21
第七章 结语 22
参考文献 23
致 谢 26 |
