GY写字楼建设项目风险管理研究(硕士)(论文36000字)
摘要
随着经济超速发展及城市化加快进程，房地产行业在我国已成为重要的投资行业之一。随着市场的不断波动，国家政策的颁布，使房地产在实际的开发当中，面临很大的风险，如何保证利润增加的同时，降低经营风险是企业面临的最主要的问题。那么，适当地规避风险，合理地处置风险并对风险进行监控增强其抵御风险的能力是企业所要亟需解决的问题，这些问题引起了了我国对项目风险管理的关注。在具体的项目实施过程中，如何将风险管理理论应用到实践中，以完整的风险管理体系指导项目进行风险管理是本文研究的主要内容。
本文以GY写字楼建设项目作为研究对象，对项目风险管理的相关概念及理论进行详细的描述，借鉴前人的研究成果，采用表核对法对项目风险进行实施额，层次分析法对项目风险进行评价，而后，根据项目风险评价结果，对项目风险采取有效的应对措施及风险监控。期望能够对项目风险进行控制，保障项目有序进行。本论文主要针对GY写字楼建设项目进行了如下研究,包括以下内容：
第一.GY写字楼建设项目风险识别。采用表核对法对GY写字楼建设项目风险进行识别，并制定风险清单。该项目准则层风险分别为：经济风险、管理风险、技术风险、自然风险和施工风险，同时，针对准则层建立了相应的指标层风险，分别为：资金不足、利率变化、原材料价格上涨、合同风险、组织机构不合理、管理制度不健全、人员流动、设计方案变更、施工索赔风险、气象条件、水文地质情况、质量风险、安全风险及进度风险。
第二.GY写字楼建设项目风险评估。根据风险识别结果，建立GY写字楼建设项目风险评价指标体系。并采用层次分析法（AHP）及专家打分法确定了5个一级指标和14个二级指标的权重，且各指标均通过了一致性检验；然后，通过准则层与指标层权重相乘，得到二级权重，并且，以计算出各指标的综合权重代表各指标层相对于目标层的风险度。最终得出建设风险发生的概率最大为0.2494，其次是技术风险，自然风险概率最低。
第三.GY写字楼建设项目风险应对及监控。根据风险评价结果，有针对性的对GY写字楼建设项目制定风险应对措施，同时，为了保证及时掌握风险动态及风险应对措施的效果，对GY写字楼建设项目进行了风险监控。建设风险综合权重值最大，需要重点进行防护，采取有效措施，保证风险处于可接受水平。对于综合权重值较小的风险，也不可忽视，置之不理。
本文通过多种方法结合使用，对GY写字楼建设项目进行风险识别、评价及监控，旨在降低项目风险，规避不必要的损失，确保项目顺利实施。
关键字：风险管理，风险评价，风险监控
Abstract
With the rapid economic development and urbanization to speed up the process, the real estate industry in China has become an important investment industry. With the continuous fluctuations in the market, the promulgation of national policies, so that real estate in the actual development of which is facing a great risk, how to ensure that profits increase at the same time, reduce business risk is the most important problems facing enterprises. Then, to properly avoid the risk, reasonable risk disposal and risk monitoring to enhance its ability to resist risks is an urgent need to solve the problem, these issues have aroused our concern about the project risk management. How to apply risk management theory to practice in the process of concrete project implementation, and it is the main content of this paper to guide risk management with complete risk management system.
In this paper, GY office construction project as a research object, the project risk management of the relevant concepts and theories described in detail, drawing on previous research results, the use of table verification method to implement the project risk, analytic hierarchy process to evaluate the project risk , And then, according to the project risk assessment results, the project risk to take effective response measures and risk monitoring. It is expected to be able to control the project risk and ensure the orderly conduct of the project. This paper mainly studies the GY office construction project as follows: It includes the following contents:
First .GY office building project risk identification. Using the table check method to identify the risk of GY office construction project, and develop a risk list. The risk of the project is: economic risk, management risk, technical risk, natural risk and construction risk. At the same time, the corresponding risk level is established for the criterion layer, namely, insufficient funds, interest rate change, raw material price rise, contract Risk, organizational structure is unreasonable, management system is not perfect, personnel mobility, design changes, construction claims risk, weather conditions, hydrogeological conditions, quality risks, safety risks and progress risk.
Second .GY office building project risk assessment. According to the result of risk identification, the risk evaluation index system of GY office building project is established. (AHP) and expert scoring method were used to determine the weight of five first-level indicators and 14 secondary indicators, and the indicators passed the consistency test. Then, through the criterion layer multiplied by the weight of the index layer, And the average weight of each index is calculated to represent the risk of each index layer relative to the target layer. And finally the probability of construction risk is 0.2494, followed by technical risk, the lowest probability of natural risk.
Third .GY office building project risk response and monitoring. According to the results of risk assessment, the risk response measures are put forward to the GY office construction project. At the same time, in order to ensure the timely control of the risk and the effect of the risk response measures, the GY office construction project has carried out risk monitoring. Construction risk comprehensive weight value of the largest, need to focus on protection, take effective measures to ensure that the risk is at an acceptable level. For the comprehensive weight value of the smaller risk, can not be ignored, ignored.
This paper uses a variety of methods to combine, the risk of GY office construction project risk identification, evaluation and monitoring, designed to reduce project risk, to avoid unnecessary losses, to ensure the smooth implementation of the project.
Keywords: risk management, risk assessment, risk monitoring
目录
一、绪论 3
1.1研究背景 3
1.2研究目的及意义 3
1.2.1研究目的 3
1.2.2研究意义 4
1.3国内外研究现状 4
1.3.1国外研究现状 4
1.3.2国内研究现状 5
1.3.3文献述评 7
1.4研究内容及技术路线 7
1.4.1研究内容 7
1.4.2技术路线 9
1.5创新点 10
二、理论基础 11
2.1工程项目风险相关概念 11
2.1.1风险定义 11
2.1.2工程项目风险的定义 11
2.1.3工程项目风险的特点 11
2.1.4工程项目风险的分类 12
2.2项目风险管理相关理论 13
2.2.1风险管理的概念 13
2.2.2项目风险管理的定义 14
2.3工程项目风险管控过程 14
2.3.1工程项目风险辨别 15
2.3.2工程项目风险评估 16
2.3.3工程项目风险应对 16
2.3.4工程项目风险监测 17
三、GY写字楼建设项目风险管理现状 18
3.1 GY写字楼建设项目简介 18
3.1.1延安陕北新区项目简介 18
3.1.2GY写字楼建设项目简介 18
3.2项目的风险管理状况 20
3.2.1GY工程建设中项目风险管理存在的问题 20
3.2.2问题原因分析 20
四、 GY写字楼建设项目风险识别 22
4.1风险识别原则 22
4.2风险识别方法 23
4.3GY写字楼建设项目风险识别 24
4.3.1 GY写字楼建设项目风险因素分析 24
4.3.2 GY写字楼建设项目风险辨别结果 25
五、GY写字楼建设项目风险评估 27
5.1风险评价的方法 27
5.1.1定性分析 27
5.1.2定量分析 28
5.2 GY写字楼建设项目风险评估 28
5.2.1 层次分析法（AHP） 29
5.2.2风险评价指标体系的建立 31
5.2.3确定各项评价指标的权重 32
5.2.4 GY写字楼建设项目风险评价 35
六、GY写字楼建设项目风险控制 37
6.1风险应对措施 37
6.1.1风险规避 37
6.1.2风险转移 37
6.1.3风险自留 38
6.1.4风险缓和 38
6.2 GY写字楼建设项目风险应对措施 39
6.2.1经济风险的应对 39
6.2.2管理风险的应对 39
6.2.3自然风险的应对 40
6.2.4技术风险的应对 41
6.2.5施工风险的应对 42
6.3GY写字楼建设项目风险监控 43
6.3.1风险监控流程 43
6.3.2风险监控方法 44
七、研究结论与展望 46
7.1 结论 46
7.2展望 47
参考文献 48 |
