上冲村城市更新改造社会稳定风险研究(硕士)(论文42000字)
STUDY ON THE RISK OF SOCIAL STABILITY IN THE URBAN RENEWAL AND TRANSFORMATION OF THE CITY OF SHANG CHONG VILLAGE
上冲地处珠海与中山坦洲、三乡的交会之处，拥有超大人流量。其中坦洲拥有超14万的常住人口，有近10万属于双城族，每天路经上冲。近年来，随着各项利好声音“助力”，上冲的发展便如它的名字一样来势汹汹，蓬勃向前。而位于上冲核心地带的上冲村，作为珠海市27个旧村改造项目之一，其重要性和现实意义也就不言而喻了。上冲村的改造是适应珠海市经济发展水平，改造的时机和条件已经成熟，符合大多数群众的利益，并能改善村民的居住环境，提高村民居住水平，带动该片区的经济发展，兼顾村民的现实利益和长远利益，但由于城中村改造项目设计征地补偿、拆迁安置、规划建设等问题远比一般房地产建设项目牵涉面广、情况复杂，必须进行细致的风险管理研究，以确保项目的顺利实施和合理实现。
通过文献研究、实证研究、定量分析等方法，本文从对上冲村城市更新改造社会稳定风险进行研究，通过风险的识别、分析、评估，得出风险控制所采用的相关建议措施，并在此基础上，对今后珠海市政府城市更新改造等公共决策提供参考依据。
本文首先研究预测研判社会稳定风险发生的源头、表现形式、概率、激烈程度、持续时间、涉及人员数量以及可能产生的各种负面影响，确定风险等级。其次研究制定防范风险的预案，明确防范风险的责任主体、具体措施及其实施要求，预判风险的可控程度，从源头上预防和化解风险。最后通过编制分析报告，为重大决策事项实施提供依据。
关键词：城中村改造；风险管理；风险识别；风险分析；风险评估；风险控制
Abstract
Shangchong Village is located in Zhuhai, Zhongshan Tanzhou, three township rendezvous, with super adult flow. Which Tanzhou has a resident population of over 140 thousand, nearly 100 thousand belong to the Shuangcheng family, every day on the road. Mingzhu road repair, Guangzhou Zhuhai light rail transit, high end real estate project. In recent years, with the good voice on the development of "power", as its name as menacing, moving forward. As one of the 27 old village reconstruction projects in the city of Zhuhai, Shangchong Village, which is located in the core area, is self-evident. On the transformation of village is to adapt to the economic development level in Zhuhai City, the transformation of the timing and conditions are already mature, with the majority of the interests of the masses, and to improve the living environment, improve the living level, drive the area of economic development, the real interests of both the villagers and the long-term benefits, but due to the problem of reconstruction of the village land acquisition project design compensation, resettlement, planning and construction than the general real estate construction projects involving a wide range, the situation is complex, must carry on the research on risk management in detail, to ensure the smooth implementation of the project and reasonable implementation.
In this paper, through literature research, empirical research, quantitative analysis method, conducts the research from the renovation of city village on social stability risk, through risk identification, analysis, evaluation, the risk control of the relevant suggestions and measures, and on this basis, to provide reference basis for the municipal government of Zhuhai city renovation of public decision-making.
The main work of this article is as follows. The first is predict and predict the source, form, probability, intensity and duration of social stability risk, the number of people involved and possible negative effects, and determine the risk level. The second is research and formulate plans for risk prevention, identify the main body responsible for risk, specific measures and implementation requirements, predict the degree of controllability of risks, and prevent and mitigate risks from the source. The third is through the compilation of the analysis report, the basis for the implementation of major decision-making matters is provided.
Keywords：Village Transformation; Risk Management; Risk Identification; Risk Analysis; Risk Assessment; Risk Control
目录
第1章 绪论 1
1.1 课题产生的背景和研究意义 1
1.1.1 研究背景 1
1.1.2 研究意义 2
1.2 国内外研究现状 3
1.2.1 国内外风险管理研究现状 3
1.2.2 国内外城市化理论研究 6
1.3 本文研究的主要内容、目标与方法 8
1.3.1 课题的研究目标 8
1.3.2 课题的研究内容 9
1.3.3 课题拟解决的问题及方法 9
第2章 研究的理论基础 10
2.1 风险管理理论 10
2.2 城中村改造相关理论 10
2.3 城中村项目改造社会稳定风险管理 11
2.3.1 风险识别 11
2.3.2 风险分析 12
2.3.3 风险评估 13
2.3.4 风险控制和对应措施 13
第3章 上冲村城市更新改造项目社会稳定风险识别和分析 15
3.1 以珠海市香洲区上冲村为例的城中村更新改造项目概述 15
3.1.1 项目背景及现状 15
3.1.2 社会环境概况 15
3.1.3 项目实施的必要性 16
3.1.4 项目实施的必要性项目改造方案 18
3.2 社会稳定风险识别 25
3.2.1 风险因素调查 25
3.2.2 风险因素汇总 30
3.3 社会稳定风险分析 33
3.3.1 风险评估内容 33
3.3.2 评估方法 33
第4章 上冲村城市更新改造项目风险评估及措施建议 41
4.1 社会稳定风险评估 41
4.1.1确定评估方法构建评估体系 41
4.1.2 项目风险评价 44
4.1.3 项目风险排序 49
4.1.4 确定风险等级 51
4.2 应对措施和相关建议 51
4.2.1 应急预案 54
4.2.2 建议 55
结论 56
致谢 57
参考文献 58 |
